Research

Working Papers

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“Defending the Status Quo? How Reelection Shapes Criminal Collusion in Mexico.”

Abstract

How does the ability of an incumbent to run for reelection shape how criminal groups engage with them? Reelection allows voters to hold elected officials accountable, prompting better governance. However, it also lengthens political horizons and increases opportunities for criminal groups to gain access and influence over the incumbent. As such, criminal groups are more likely to attack rival candidates to ensure incumbents win reelection. I test this argument using original data on fatal attacks on local politicians in Mexico. Using a multi-period difference-in-differences design, I show that criminal groups disproportionately killed rival candidates in places where incumbents could run for reelection, maintaining the status quo and keeping the incumbent in power. As a result, re-electable mayors were more likely to be audited for corruption where criminal groups operate. This letter demonstrates the important trade-off between democratic ideals and outside influence, exacerbated by politicians' electoral incentives.

• Keywords: reelection; institutional reform; organized crime; criminal violence; elections; Mexico

“Violence Incorporated? State Response to Pro-Government Militias in Northern Ireland”

• Written with: Danielle Villa, Emily Gade, and Sarah Dreier

Abstract

Why do states support some pro-government militias (PGMs) while actively sup- pressing others, particularly when the militias engage in similar behavior? This article examines the internal decision-making process of the British government during the conflict in Northern Ireland, analyzing 8,430 recently declassified documents from the Prime Ministers’ security-based Correspondence Files (1969-1974). These documents detail the British government’s internal attitudes and behaviors toward more than 20 Loyalist PGM groups. We show that the British government identified the benefits that certain PGMs could offer in terms of policing, auxiliary military support, and buttressing public opinion. The state was also deeply concerned about the long-term consequences of collusion, resulting in limited, short-term collaboration with certain beneficial PGMs. We provide the first internal account of how governments think about and work with PGMs, providing critical insights into how conflicts unfold in real-time, and contributing to a broader understanding of state-militia dynamics globally.

• Keywords: Loyalist paramilitaries; UDA; UVF; collusion; pro-government militias; qualitative research; Northern Ireland

“Why Colonies Selectively Repress Crime: Analyzing Security Decisions of the East India Company”

Abstract

How do colonial regimes respond to and discuss issues of criminal violence within their overseas holdings? Moreover, how do colonial regimes govern in response to civil disorder? While the devastating long-term consequences of colonial rule are well-established, we understand less about why repressive policies vary within individual territories, despite similar levels of criminal violence. Further, the internal governing discussions and security decisions of colonial regimes remains opaque. Using the internal, private records of the English East India Company during the initial years of rule in Bengal (1769-1773), I examine why the Company selectively repressed some criminal violence but not others. I suggest that the Company's relationships with local elites shaped their governance tactics when facing domestic conflict and violence. Where elites allied with colonial rule, the Company was more likely to violently suppress crime and protect the status quo. This suggests that colonial regimes, and modern states beyond them, are aware of and responsive to the destabilizing effects of criminal violence and strategically repress some to protect political assets, rather than purely strategic goals. This project provides critical insight into how authorities govern and make decisions in the face of organized, armed violence, even when it does not directly challenge incumbent rule.

• Keywords: East India Company; Historical Political Economy; archival research; crackdowns; armed resistence; Bengal

“Managing An Extractive Empire: How the East India Company Solved Agency Problems”

Abstract

To be hired by the English East India Company (EIC), an individual was generally required to be between fifteen and eighteen years old. With little training or local knowledge, employees were sent across the globe, supplied with arms, and instructed to maximize profits. As such, the EIC was plagued by agency problems from its inception. How do organizations solve this challenge? This is particularly acute in economically driven groups, where hiring a profit-seeking employee can both be highly beneficial but also highly risky. Examining the internal communications of the EIC as it shifted from a trading company to a governing authority, I show that the Company was deeply concerned about this issue. As a result, they formed an institutional structure of intelligence sharing and reporting on other's behavior, maximizing transparency and bureaucratizing spying. This project helps us understand how a group's organization shapes its behavior and responses to challenges.

• Keywords: East India Company; Historical Political Economy; archival research; agency problems; organizational theory

“Arming the Armed: Explaining How Violent Groups Delegate Coercive Authority”

Abstract

Violent armed groups around the world formally designate institutions, from specialized coercive institutions to ones that provide services. For groups that seek to reform, remove, or supplant the state, these institutions are a mechanism of direct governance by which the groups can impose a new political or social order. For groups that do not seek statehood, however, these institutions help them achieve their non-political goals, such as economic ones. However, because these groups do not rival the state, they can also co-opt state institutions and govern indirectly. This project examines the trade-off that non-state-seeking groups face when choosing an institutional arrangement. They can govern indirectly, through co-opting state institutions, or directly by developing their own institutions. Indirect governance establishes immediate access to state power but introduces principal-agent problems. When the state is unable to serve a faithful agent, groups may choose to form their own institutions. These can be more effective but also are much more costly to establish and maintain. I examine this conceptualization using qualitative evidence of coercive institutions by criminal groups in Mexico (1990-2010).

• Keywords: criminal governance; institutions; non-state governance; order

“Divergent Accountability? Competing Principals and Incomplete Contracts”

Abstract

How does the introduction of competing principals impact voters' ability to hold politicians accountable? This project builds off of canonical models of democratic accountability, which frame reelection as a chance for voters to solve the moral hazard problem they face with politicians. Here, however, there is a second principal who is also vying for control of the politician, as the agent, but who has fundamentally divergent goals from the voters. This principal also has a different set of skills that they can employ to coerce the official, using both bribes and threats. The politician, therefore, must appraise the risks they face and the value of holding office, given the incentives offered by each of the principals. This model has broad applications, applying wherever principals, armed with differing capacities, compete for control of an agent.

• Keywords: multiple principals; accountability; moral hazard; delegation; organized crime; formal model

Data Collection

“Digitizing Private Correspondence from the East India Company (1769-1773)”

Abstract

The English East India Company (EIC) has been called one of the most well-documented corporations in human history. In this qualitative dataset, I gather all recorded correspondence, internal and external, from the Company records kept at the Asia and Africa Reading Room at the British Library. I particularly focus on the Presidency of Bengal, where the EIC first obtained the rigth to extract land taxes and began to govern as an administrative body during this period. Thus, this period covers one of the most influential moments in Company history -- defining how British colonial policy in India would be organized for more than a century. With more than 4,000 pages of handwritten documents, the first goal of this project is to digitize these letters and clearly record their contents.

• Keywords: Computer Vision; Natural Languange Processing; Predictive LLM; archival records

“Mapping Criminal Governance”

Abstract

How do criminal groups govern? While our understanding of governance by criminal organizations has grown, there is little systematic data to map it. This project seeks to address this gap. Using newspaper articles from _The New York Times_ containing the names of more than 50 randomly selected groups from across Latin America, this project implements a supervised machine learning approach to code more than thirty indicators of criminal governance. This indicators include who is governing (what group or groups), how they are governing (enforcing rules, collecting taxes, distributing goods), and who they are governing (civilians, other criminals, or the state). This project seeks to expand our understanding of criminal governance across the globe.

• Keywords: Criminal Governance; Latin America; Natural Language Processing; supervised machine learning